Preview: Wisconsin vs Northwestern

November 10, 2023
|In Badgers
|By Zach Heilprin

THE BASICS

The teams: The Wisconsin Badgers (5-4, 3-3) vs the Northwestern Wildcats (4-5, 2-4)

The time: 2:30 p.m. CDT, Saturday

The place: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, Wis.

The TV coverage: FS1 with Chris Myers and Robert Smith

The last time: Graham Mertz threw five touchdowns as Wisconsin rolled to a 42-7 win in the debut for interim coach Jim Leonhard last year.

The series: Wisconsin leads 62-37-5

The line: Wisconsin -10.5

THE BREAKDOWN: 4 THINGS TO WATCH

1) Still locked in?

The first year under coach Luke Fickell has not been what anyone expected, whether that’s those inside the program or fans on the outside. They are stuck in a stretch of losing three of their last four games, including an embarrassing defeat at Indiana last week. Winning the Big Ten West seems like a long shot, even if they are just a game out of first place. That feels like a very difficult situation for a coach to keep a team engaged for the final three games of the regular season. Saturday will show us pretty quickly if they are still bought into Fickell’s message or if things go from bad to worse.

2) Braedyn Locke bounce back?

The redshirt freshman gave folks some hope late in the Illinois game and against Ohio State that he could be the future of the position for the Badgers. But his performance against Indiana gave everyone pause, including Locke, who said he wanted 10 or 11 plays from the game back after watching the film. He won’t get that chance, but he does have another opportunity against a surprisingly stingy Northwestern passing defense that ranks 12th in the country. It could be Locke’s last chance this year as senior Tanner Mordecai appears getting close to a return.

3) Running back blues

It remains unclear whether Braelon Allen will play as he is battling an ankle injury suffered two weeks ago against Ohio State. The consensus seems to be it’s unlikely, meaning the Badgers will turn to Jackson Acker and Cade Yacamelli for a second straight week. That duo combined for 96 yards and less than five yards per carry in the loss to Indiana. Wisconsin needs better production from them on Saturday, especially seeing as the Wildcats’ defense is more susceptible to the run than the pass.

4) Defense fast start

This should be another favorable matchup for the Badgers defense, a unit that has held three of its last five opponents under 275 yards of total offense. Northwestern currently ranks 128th in the country in yards per game, which is better than Iowa (237 yards vs Wisconsin) and worse than Indiana (261 yards vs Wisconsin). What can absolutely not happen, though, is the Badgers getting off to their typical slow starts. They spotted the Hawkeyes a 7-0 lead thanks to a big play in the first half, while Indiana had a 10-0 lead and a 17-7 lead because the defense couldn’t get off the field on the third down. Wisconsin must come out fast or risk another humiliating loss.

NUMBERS TO CONSIDER

— Wisconsin is currently on a two-game losing streak. Outside of the COVID-shortened 2020 season, the Badgers haven’t lost three-straight Big Ten games since 2008.

— Wide receiver Will Pauling has 46 catches on the year, leaving him on pace for 66 on the year. That would rank fifth all-time at Wisconsin. It would also be the most since Alex Erickson had 77 in 2015.

— The Badgers have been to a bowl game every year since 2002, the longest streak in the country. They can become eligible for a bowl with a win on Saturday.

ZONE PREDICTIONS

Zach Heilprin (5-4, 2-7 ATS) ’s prediction: Wisconsin 16, Northwestern 13
Ebo (6-3, 5-4 ATS) ’s prediction: Wisconsin 17, Northwestern 10
Nelson Raisbeck (6-3, 3-6 ATS)’s prediction: Wisconsin 24, Northwestern 17
RJ Brachman’s (6-3, 4-5 ATS) prediction: Wisconsin 23, Northwestern 17