Zach Heilprin

Wisconsin vs (14) Michigan: Preview

THE BASICS

The teams: The Wisconsin Badgers (1-2, 0-1) vs the No. 14 Michigan Wolverines (4-0, 1-0)

The time: 11 a.m. CDT, Saturday

The place: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, Wis.

The TV coverage: FOX with Gus Johnson and Joel Klatt in the booth, and Jenny Taft on the sideline.

The last time: Wisconsin ran for 341 yards and five touchdowns in a 49-11 beatdown last November in Ann Arbor.

The series: Michigan leads 51-17-1

The line: Wisconsin -1.5

THE BREAKDOWN: 5 THINGS TO WATCH

1) What you got this time, Graham Mertz?

Wisconsin turnovers accounted for 31 of Notre Dame’s 41 points last week and Graham Mertz was responsible for all five. The quarterback was intercepted four times, including two that were taken back for touchdowns, while also losing a fumble.

It is pretty simple for the Badgers. When Mertz protects the football, they have an incredibly good chance of winning. In fact, they are 5-0 when he does not throw an interception. But if he is loose with the ball, they are in trouble, evidenced by them being 0-5 when he does throw it to the other team at least once.

Mertz does not have to be perfect against the Wolverines. The redshirt sophomore must make smart decisions and hit open receivers. Unfortunately, he has not done either against elite competition this year. Saturday provides him another opportunity against a Michigan defense that ranks fourth in the country in fewest points allowed.

2) Time to dominate

In outscoring Michigan 84-25 the last two years, Wisconsin’s run game has been unstoppable. The Badgers ran for 359 yards in 2019 and 341 yards in 2020. To this point, UW has not shown they can run like that against good defenses and Michigan has that.

For whatever reason – facing too many stacked fronts, a lack of continuity, or a lack of adjustments – Wisconsin’s offensive line did not get the job done against Penn State and Notre Dame. The Badgers averaged just 2.9 yards per carry in those two games combined. That is not going to cut it, even with acknowledging how difficult it is to run when seeing so many defenders close to the line of scrimmage.

Wisconsin needs more out of its offensive line and if the Badgers get can just a sliver of what they did against the Wolverines the last two times out, it may be enough to get the win.

3) Strength on strength

No team in the Big Ten is averaging more yards per game on the ground than Michigan at 290.8. The Wolverines have 17 rushing touchdowns, which is tied for the most in the country, and are running on 74% of their plays this year. Some of that is the nature in which their games have played out – they beat their first three opponents by a score of 141 to 34 – but it is clear Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Josh Gattis have made a commitment to the running game.

Still, Michigan has not seen a front seven like Wisconsin’s yet. The Badgers lead the country in rush defense at 23.0 yards per game and have allowed just one score on the ground. They have been downright dominant the last two games against Eastern Michigan and Notre Dame, allowing 19 yards on 50 carries. Sack yardage plays into that, but it needs to be noted that the quarterbacks for the Eagles and Fighting Irish each had their team's longest rush on the day – nine yards for Ben Bryant and eight yards for Jack Coan.

If Wisconsin can keep stuffing the run like it has, Michigan will be pushed out of its comfort zone and forced to count on Cade McNamara to make some plays with his arm.

4) Speaking of Cade McNamara….

Only the three service academies are throwing less than Michigan, but Wisconsin does not think that is because they don’t trust McNamara.

“They have not had to force the ball down the field and really put the ball in the quarterback’s hands much,” defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard said. “That’s the benefit of winning games and winning them big. I think they have more confidence in the quarterback than it appears. There are people coming out and acting like it’s an issue for him. I don’t think it is. They just haven’t had to win a game that way yet.

“So, we’ve got to go in there and understand that they can be a more balanced offense than they currently are. We have to force them into being that.”

Wisconsin saw McNamara last year, as he came in when the game was already a blowout. He finished 4-for-7 for 72 yards and a touchdown. That effort showed the Badgers what the quarterback is capable of and they will not be caught off guard Saturday.

5) Make or break

Wisconsin’s playoff hopes may have been dashed but its season is not over at this point. Yeah, the Badgers are 1-2 for the first time in 20 years, but there is still enough time for them to figure it out and win the Big Ten West. However, that needs to start Saturday against Michigan.

If they fall to 0-2 in conference play, it seems unlikely they will be able to catch an Iowa team that could go to 3-0 Friday night in Maryland. A win, though, puts them back on track at 1-1. They would control their own fate just by winning their own games and not needing to count on anyone else.

This game will surely make or break their hopes of making it to the conference title game for a fourth time in Chryst’s five seasons.

NUMBERS TO CONSIDER

-- Michigan leads the all-time series 51-17-1 but Wisconsin has won five straight in Madison and 7-4 overall since 2005. The Badgers are looking for just their second three-game winning streak in the series and their first since the late 1950s and early 1960s.

-- The Badgers have lost seven straight games to ranked teams and are just 3-12 in their last 15. The offense has been a big reason in the current losing streak as they have averaged just 11.6 points per game. Another loss would drop Wisconsin to 1-3 for the first time since 1990.

-- Wisconsin will celebrate the career of former coach and athletic director Barry Alvarez during the game. Alvarez is the all-time wins leader for the Badgers with 119 over his 16-year career plus two interim stints for bowl games. That leads the next closest coach – Bret Bielema – by 51 wins. For perspective, current coach Paul Chryst as 57 victories, tied with Phil King for the third-most in UW history.

ZONE PREDICTIONS

Zach Heilprin's (2-1, 2-1 ATS) prediction: Wisconsin 13, Michigan 7
Ebo's (1-2, 1-2 ATS) prediction: Wisconsin 21, Michigan 17
Nelson Raisbeck's (1-2, 1-2 ATS) prediction: Wisconsin 21, Michigan 17
RJ Brachman's (1-2, 0-3 ATS) prediction: Michigan 21, Wisconsin 17
Ben Kenney's (1-2, 1-2 ATS) prediction: Michigan 23, Wisconsin 14

by Zach Heilprin

The Camp: Sept. 30, 2021

Wisconsin is getting ready to face Michigan but there are still questions about what's happened to the offense in the first three games. The guys dig into the numbers with Graham Mertz and the offensive line, talk with The Athletic's Austin Meek to learn about the Wolverines, and they give their weekend picks. 

by Zach Heilprin

Wisconsin hoping to change the narrative with Michigan coming to Madison

MADISON -- The Wisconsin football team is 5-5 in its last 10 games and 9-9 in its last 18. Use any word you want -- mediocre, average, or ordinary -- and that's what the Badgers have been for what amounts to roughly a season-and-a-half now. It has been even worse of late, as the team has lost seven of its last 12 games.

Since winning 82% of his games in the first three years on the job, coach Paul Chryst has won 62% in the last three-plus seasons. It is still a solid winning percentage, but it is not good enough for a team that has won at least 10 games eight times since 2009 and captured three Big Ten titles during that stretch. Expectations are different and recent efforts have not been meeting them.

"Numbers don't lie. That's what we are right now," defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard said Monday. "Can we be significantly more than that? Yes. Have we in the near past been more than this? Absolutely. So, it's on us to change the narrative right now. We have to win big games; we have to show up in in crucial moments and find ways to get victories. Simple as that."

The Badgers, or more accurately the offense and parts of the special teams, failed their most recent opportunity to begin changing the narrative. A 13-10 lead early in the fourth quarter over Notre Dame last Saturday turned into an embarrassing 41-13 loss on the back of giving up a kick return for a touchdown, two interceptions returned for touchdowns and a total of five turnovers. It was their seventh straight loss against a ranked team, and they fell to 3-10 in their last 13.

Wisconsin has had dips like this before over the last 30 years. After going 18-4-2 in 1993 and 1994, the Badgers went 20-15-2 over the next three seasons. They righted the ship and ended up winning the Big Ten twice before another downturn unfolded in 2001. In a three-year stretch they went 20-19 but once again pulled themselves out of a tailspin to win 31 games from 2004 to 2006.

"No one feels bad for the Wisconsin Badgers right now. It's on us to regain the confidence to go out there and change what the past has been and go out there and get some wins and get the confidence back to where we feel like it should be," Leonhard said. "We have the talent to do it, we have the coaching staff to get it done. Now it's on us to take ownership of it and go make it happen."

Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on your point of view, the ability to start changing the talking points around the team will present itself once again on a national stage as No. 14 Michigan comes to Madison on Saturday. The Wolverines are out to a 4-0 start on the back of a power running game and a stout defense. They got tested against a solid Rutgers squad last week, beating the Scarlet Knights 20-13. Before that, though, they outscored Western Michigan, Washington, and Northern Illinois 141 to 34.

"Obviously, winning the Big Ten West, winning the Big Ten is still an obtainable goal," linebacker Jack Sanborn said when putting the team's 1-2 start into perspective. "But in order for us to do that, I think everyone understands that we have to improve right now and improve in a lot of areas, offense, defense, special teams. But it's not something that we're not capable of, and it's not something that this team isn't capable of."

Sanborn and the defense have more than held up their end of the bargain. While the senior said there was more they could do to help the offense against Penn State and Notre Dame, the fact is they have played plenty good enough to be sitting at 3-0 on the season. Wisconsin leads the country in rushing defense, ranks second in total defense, is sixth in third-down defense and is racking up 8.3 tackles for loss per game, the 11th-best mark in the nation. While they are 54th in scoring defense, if you take away the 28 points the offense and special teams have given up, the Badgers would rank fifth at 12.0 points per game.

The offense, meanwhile, is at the other end of the spectrum. The Badgers are scoring 19.0 points per game, good for 112th in the nation. Only three Power 5 teams are averaging less. They have nine turnovers, which is three more than any other team that has played three games. Their redzone offense ranks 126th out of 130 teams in the FBS, and they are converting just 27.6% of the time on third down. The latter number is the worst figure of any Wisconsin team since records were first kept in 1981.

"I like this team and I like their intentions," coach Paul Chryst said. "I also think that we've got enough talent to be a good team. Right now, we're doing some things -- as a team -- that make it harder to win. Not impossible but it really makes it hard. I think we've got some areas where we're giving ourselves a chance and others that are making it hard."

Many people are pointing towards the quarterback position for the offensive struggles. Graham Mertz has not made the leap many were expecting in his second year after an up-and-down redshirt freshman season. He has been indecisive, frequently out of rhythm and especially abysmal when under pressure in the two games against elite competition. His six interceptions are tied for the most in the Big Ten and his 97.3 pass efficiency rating is the worst in the conference.

Still, had he hit on a couple throws against Penn State (Chimere Dike for a game-winning touchdown) and Notre Dame (deep shots to Dike and Davis, late on a pass to Kendric Pryor that cost them a first down) Wisconsin could very well be unbeaten.

"That's my brother, man" Davis said of standing behind Mertz despite the struggles. "Everybody's going to say things and say stuff like that, but at the end of the day, it's a team thing. It's not his fault. There are plays that I could have gotten open, Kendric could have got open. It's a group thing, so blaming one person is just stupid to me. I would never think that way about the game of football."

And yet, the quarterback is the most important player on the team. He is the one with the ball in his hands every snap, directing the rest of the offense. There's pressure with that responsibility and there would seemingly be even more when you arrive in Madison as the highest-ranked quarterback recruit in school history like Mertz. Some are already labeling him a bust after 10 starts and the calls for him to be replaced grow louder by the week.

"I'm a redshirt sophomore," Mertz said. "I've never felt pressure. The only pressure I feel is what I put on myself to be the best quarterback I can be. Truly I'm going through my process, I'm trusting it. All that matters is I'm getting 1% better every day. And by doing that I will become the best quarterback that I can be. So, I don't feel any external pressure. It's all what I put on myself. It's all self-talk. In the end, I control how I feel, how I think all through myself. I don't feel any external pressure."

Wisconsin's season is not lost. The Badgers are only 0-1 in Big Ten play and still have plenty of football left to fix the issues and get back on track. Everyone knows that has to start this week.

"We got nine more games left and still have a chance to change the season," Davis said. "It's still early, lot of games left. We still got a chance to control the Big Ten West, so that's all we can worry about right now. We can't worry about the past. We have to continue to push through these hard times and once we get through that we'll see the brighter light in things.”

by Zach Heilprin

The Camp: Sept. 27, 2021

Wisconsin fell apart in the fourth quarter and lost 41-13 to Notre Dame in Chicago. The guys breakdown what they saw, including the continued struggles of Graham Mertz, the overall ineptitude on offense, and another impressive effort from the defense. They also play a some 'Overreaction or No' and answer your Twitter questions. 

by Zach Heilprin