THE BASICS

The teams: The Wisconsin Badgers (6-5, 4-4) vs the Minnesota Golden Gophers (7-4, 4-4)

The time: 2:30 p.m. CDT, Saturday

The place: Camp Randall Stadium, Madison, Wis.

The TV coverage: ESPN with Brian Custer and Dustin Fox on the call, and Lauren Sisler on the sideline.

The last time: Minnesota’s defense stifled Wisconsin’s offense and did enough on offense itself to pull a 23-13 upset last November to deny the Badgers the Big Ten West title.

The series: Wisconsin leads 62-61-8

The line: Wisconsin -3

THE BREAKDOWN: 5 THINGS TO WATCH

1) For the Axe

There is no Big Ten West title on the line like two of the last three years but that doesn’t matter to Wisconsin. Not after last year when the Gophers ended the Badgers’ chances of a trip to the conference title game with a 23-13 win. That victory was followed by the fans inside Huntington Bank Stadium pouring onto the field and the school trolling the Badgers by blaring Jump Around. Videos of that celebration played in Wisconsin’s weight room this offseason and more this week. Players have also had to walk by an empty trophy case in their locker room for nearly a year. That’s motivation enough to be the one chopping down the goal posts with Paul Bunyan’s Axe after the game.

2) Slowing Mo Ibrahim

Wisconsin’s run defense will face its toughest test of the season in the form of Minnesota running back Mo Ibrahim. The fifth-year senior leads the country with 1,524 yards and 19 touchdowns. He’s coming off a 267-yard effort against a stout Iowa defense and has run for at least 100 yards in 19 straight games.

But the Badgers have been good against the run much of the year, save for one ugly night at Ohio State. Wisconsin ranks 11th in the country and its last three opponents are averaging just 1.9 yards per carry. A big effort from the middle of the Badgers unit, namely nose tackle Keeanu Benton and linebackers Jordan Turner, Maema Njongmeta and Jake Chaney, will be key.

3) The good Graham Mertz shows up

Graham Mertz has had a good season statistically. He’s clearly taken a step from last year, leading to throwing for career-best 18 touchdowns and nearly 2,000 yards. But he has struggled the last three weeks, completing just 40.8% of his passes while throwing three interceptions and losing a fumble. Some of that can be blamed on the conditions in those games, as the opposing quarterbacks weren’t much better. But Wisconsin needs more from the junior, or at a minimum, just don’t turn the ball over. His mistakes led to an Iowa touchdown two weeks ago, while Nebraska set up its first touchdown up after picking Mertz off.

Minnesota presents a similar challenge as the Hawkeyes and Illinois, games that Mertz threw four of his nine interceptions on the season. The Gophers rank eighth in the country against the pass and haven’t allowed a touchdown through the air in a month.

The hope is that he can grab some momentum from a strong fourth quarter against the Cornhuskers in which he led a pair of touchdown drives and carry it over to a tough Gophers defense. If he limits his mistakes, it will give Wisconsin a much better chance of winning what is expected to be a low-scoring affair.

4) Gophers QB?

There is a little uncertainty around who will be under center for the Gophers on Saturday. Super senior Tanner Morgan started the season off hot but injuries have limited his playing time over the last two months and he hasn’t thrown a touchdown since Sept. 24. He last played against Nebraska two weeks ago when he was knocked out of the game with an upper body injury and he’s questionable for Saturday.

If he can’t go, it’ll be redshirt freshman Athan Kaliakmanis getting his fifth start. A four-star recruit in the 2021 class, Kaliakmanis has been underwhelming as a thrower so far (46.6% completion percentage, one TD) but can give teams trouble with his legs. He also hasn’t turned it over much, throwing just one interception in his last three games.

Wisconsin’s defense, especially in the passing game, has been solid since the return of cornerback Alexander Smith to the starting lineup and has been opportunistic throughout the season, capturing 15 interceptions.

5) Last game as interim?

Jim Leonhard enters Saturday having gone 4-2 since taking over for Paul Chryst in early October. With Wisconsin posting its vacant head coaching position after the Nebraska win, it’s widely expected that Leonhard will be named the full-time coach in the next few days. Being able to have the knowledge that Paul Bunyan’s Axe is back in the Wisconsin locker room would certainly give a little more energy to that press conference and his first offseason overseeing the program.

NUMBERS TO CONSIDER

— Wisconsin’s defense has put together its best statistical performances of the season in the last three weeks, not allowing Maryland, Iowa, or Nebraska to top the 200-yard mark. It’s the first time in the 21st century the Badgers have put together a three-week stretch like that.

— Wisconsin has won 16 of the last 18 meetings against Minnesota, though the sides have split the last four. The Gophers have not beaten the Badgers in back-to-back years since 1993-94.

— A banged up Braelon Allen had just 47 yards in last year’s meeting against Minnesota, a game the Badgers played without Chez Mellusi (torn ACL) and Isaac Guerendo (Lisfranc). While Allen remains banged up with shoulder and ankle injuries heading into this game, Wisconsin will have a healthy Mellusi and Guerendo to challenge a Gophers run defense that ranks 10th in the country.

ZONE PREDICTIONS

Zach Heilprin’s (7-4, 6-5 ATS) prediction: Wisconsin 21, Minnesota 20
Ebo’s (5-6, 4-7 ATS) prediction: Wisconsin 24, Minnesota 17
Nelson Raisbeck’s (6-5, 4-7 ATS) prediction: Minnesota 21, Wisconsin 17
RJ Brachman’s (6-5, 2-9 ATS) prediction: Wisconsin 24, Minnesota 20
Ben Kenney’s (7-4, 4-7 ATS) prediction: Wisconsin 21, Minnesota 20